Nate Silver: Trump has 20% chance to win

Posted by | June 29, 2016 17:17 | Filed under: Politics

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Nate Silver pegs the the chance of a Trump victory at 20%.

Giving Trump a 20 percent or 25 percent chance of becoming president means that Clinton has a 75 percent to 80 percent chance. That might seem generous given that, under ordinary circumstances, the background conditions of this election (no incumbent running and a mediocre economy) would seem to suggest a tossup. Are Clinton’s high odds justified on the basis of the polls? Or do they require making heroic assumptions about Trump, the same ones that got everyone, emphatically including yours truly, in trouble during the primaries?

The short answer is that 20 percent or 25 percent is a pretty reasonable estimate of Trump’s chances based on the polls and other empirical evidence. In fact, that’s quite close to where FiveThirtyEight’s statistical models, which are launching today, have the race. Our polls-only model has Trump with a 19 percent chance of beating Clinton as of early Wednesday afternoon. (The forecasts will continually update as new polls are added.) Our polls-plus model, which considers economic conditions along with the polls, is more optimistic about Trump, giving him a 26 percent chance.

Still, Trump faces longer odds and a bigger polling deficit than John McCain and Mitt Romney did at the same point in their respective races.

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Copyright 2016 Liberaland
By: Alan

Alan Colmes is the publisher of Liberaland.

10 responses to Nate Silver: Trump has 20% chance to win

  1. Buford2k11 June 29th, 2016 at 17:19

    Need to push that 20% down to 0%…

    • The Wise Wizard June 29th, 2016 at 17:34

      Give Trump another week or two speeches and he’ll tank the numbers himself.

    • The Original Just Me June 29th, 2016 at 22:32

      No,No,No, Palin will vote for him.

  2. labman57 June 29th, 2016 at 17:58

    The inevitable Trump response:
    “Silver is highly overrated, he’s a loser, a total disgrace.”

  3. anothertoothpick June 29th, 2016 at 18:39

    Oh look, he has no clothes.

    • Mike June 29th, 2016 at 19:28

      Nobody seems to care…:(

    • bpollen June 30th, 2016 at 15:53

      Thanks… there went my appetite.

  4. fahvel June 30th, 2016 at 03:03

    don’t get complacent folks!!!!!! some said the same sht about him when he was running against the magnificent seven too – look what ya got.

  5. Ned Nutley June 30th, 2016 at 12:42

    Vote straight ticket for the Democrats and kick the party of no out of congress.

  6. Nightflyer June 30th, 2016 at 17:22

    I devoutly hope this is true, as Nate Silver is a good prognosticator, but the Democrats had better not get complacent…”crush the enemy when you have him at your mercy.” General Tomoyuki Yamashita, before the conquest of Singapore. A pal of mine quotes that.

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