Nate Silver: Trump Won’t Be The Nominee

Posted by | January 8, 2016 22:00 | Filed under: Politics

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Not that there’s zero chance, but there’s little chance.

I don’t think his chances are zero. You have to be very careful about saying they’re zero, but I think they’re lower than 20 [percent] or 25 percent. Maybe they’re 10 percent. Maybe they’re 8 percent. I’m not sure, somewhere in that range. You’ve never had a candidate like Donald Trump win a nomination before, at least not in the modern era, which is 1972 or so, onward, which is when people started voting in primaries and caucuses. Usually the party is able to find ways to shuffle candidates who are openly running against the party to prevent them from winning their party’s nomination. A second reason is that I think people are paying too much attention to the polls. Historically, polls, at this point, are not very predictive at all.

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Copyright 2016 Liberaland
By: Alan

Alan Colmes is the publisher of Liberaland.

11 responses to Nate Silver: Trump Won’t Be The Nominee

  1. Chris January 8th, 2016 at 22:34

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think Trump will win according to Nate Silver.

    (Sorry, I couldn’t resist! Having a science background, I also realize how the man on the street must view Silver’s hedging given probabilities.)

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  2. mistlesuede January 8th, 2016 at 23:43

    Historically, there has never been such an absolutely revolting primary season that went on for this long either with a racist, homophobic, misogynistic, xenophobic, reality show, 4th grade vocabulary using, bloated, lumbering, hate-filled, pig, a-hole leading before. Sooo, sorry Nate. This time I think you might have missed something. Just because it hasn’t happened before means nothing this year.

  3. rg9rts January 9th, 2016 at 01:40

    Not a vote has been cast and we have the winners??? The best part of the entire fiasco is the public airing of the true american ugly the gopee really is

  4. bpollen January 9th, 2016 at 03:09

    With a pose like that, you KNOW he’s right!

    Though I agree that polls are not that informative at this point.

  5. KABoink_after_wingnut_hacker January 9th, 2016 at 05:42

    Don’t be too sure about that Nate.
    The tribe that rubs sh!t in their hair is a big part of the republican base now; where facts, science, common sense & knowledge don’t matter a wit.
    Only hate and raw emotion stirs the pig people and tRump speaks to them in grade school words that they understand.

    • Mensa Member January 9th, 2016 at 18:05

      Nobody reads the polls better than Nate Silver these days. I never discount anything he says.

      But, that being said, I suspect the Trump phenomenon is something that may be hard to poll for.

  6. allison1050 January 9th, 2016 at 05:45

    But if the fake journalists didn’t talk about the polls then what? The roaring sounds of beautiful silence Nate.

  7. Mensa Member January 9th, 2016 at 11:55

    Like a lot of liberals, I fantasize about a true liberal being president.

    That was not Obama or Bill Clinton. Its not Hillary Clinton. All those are centrists.

    Bernie Sanders is a real-deal liberal.

    If the Republicans nominate Donald Trump, then Bernie Sanders has a real chance to win.

    This could be the game-changer many Americans have been hoping for.

  8. TheSpiffy January 9th, 2016 at 19:24

    Hmm I trust Nate, but I”m not sure I”d write off Trump at this point. The Republicans are probably dumb enough to nominate him. He has been their frontrunner for like 6 or 7 months.

  9. FNLED January 9th, 2016 at 21:41

    “Usually the party is able to find ways to shuffle candidates who are openly running against the party to prevent them from winning their party’s nomination.”

    Like the immoral crap the GOP pulled on Ron Paul when they “found ways” to say he never won those primary’s he actually won.

    “For the first time ever, the Iowa GOP changed the final vote count to a secret location .”

    HOW THE REPUBLICAN PARTY STOLE THE NOMINATION FROM RON PAUL

    https://jaretglenn.wordpress.com/2012/07/31/how-the-republican-party-stole-the-nomination-from-ron-paul/

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