Silver: 5 Reasons Not To Take Trump Polling Seriously

Posted by | August 12, 2015 16:00 | Filed under: Politics

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(Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Nate Silver puts the Donald Trump polling surge in perspective. Here’s why the numbers may not predict a Trump victory:

  • They contemplate a vote today, but we’re currently 174 days from the Iowa caucuses.
  • They contemplate a national primary, but states vote one at a time or in small groups.
  • They contemplate a race with 17 candidates, but several candidates will drop out before Iowa and several more will drop out before the other states vote.
  • They contemplate a winner-take-all vote, but most states are not winner-take-all.
  • They contemplate a vote among all Republican-leaning registered voters or adults, but in fact only a small fraction of them will turn out for primaries and caucuses.

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Copyright 2015 Liberaland
By: Alan

Alan Colmes is the publisher of Liberaland.

14 responses to Silver: 5 Reasons Not To Take Trump Polling Seriously

  1. jstsmlbrlcnsrvtvguy August 12th, 2015 at 16:39

    five more reasons not to take any old “poll” seriously, except, maybe, that one with the quaint, patchmandered rules like the “electoral college”, hanging chads, purple thumbs, and Diebold.x voting machines.

    • jstsmlbrlcnsrvtvguy August 12th, 2015 at 16:40

      even “exit polls” stopped being accurate a few years back, or so I’ve heard.

      • Larry Schmitt August 12th, 2015 at 16:45

        That’s because people lie about how they voted, to seem smarter than they actually are.

        • The Original Just Me August 12th, 2015 at 19:28

          Smarter than they actually are, AWE, the human race.

        • Robert Kennedy August 13th, 2015 at 19:07

          No, before machine voting exit polls rarely varied from the actual vote by more than one half percent. It’s the official results that lie because of Diebold and others and the ease of hacking them.

    • The Original Just Me August 12th, 2015 at 19:27

      And then you have Idaho. Sing this as in a soft melody.

  2. Mike August 12th, 2015 at 16:55

    I have just one reason…the Dump is a clown.

    • Tommie August 13th, 2015 at 01:04

      I also have one reason, that fool is cra, cra! Using Larry Wilmore reference!

  3. amersham46 August 12th, 2015 at 18:05

    Then why bother with all these polls

    • The Original Just Me August 12th, 2015 at 19:26

      Three answers to that question, Money, Money, Money. There, does that explain it ?

    • Chris August 12th, 2015 at 20:53

      Mainstream media know what gets attention. Policy? That requires thinking. And the media are exceedingly lazy with no sense of duty to informing the country.

  4. Carolina Gonzalez August 12th, 2015 at 23:22

    Well the Trumpnado likes all the polls, the “polls” where all his mistresses dance for him https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a51c565e8dbb89da0b100e92cd4494cde5b7d5e71a9ec0e553c9bcb116bba341.jpg

  5. William August 13th, 2015 at 08:55

    The percentages of people for Trump is likely about the same as the percentage of viewers who think WWF is real.

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