Princeton Prof: Democrats Will Hold Senate
Click here for reuse options!Wang says he thinks the Democrats have a 70 percent chance of holding control of the Senate. As of Monday afternoon, Nate Silver thinks the Republicans have a 58 percent chance of winning, and The Upshot gives Republicans a 52 percent chance now calling it a tossup.
Wang is a 47-year-old professor of neuroscience and molecular biology at Princeton who uses advanced statistical methods to study how brain circuits work. He is the author of two books on the brain and his recent work focuses on autism. Politics, he says, is just kind of a hobby. “It’s a relatively easy problem compared with the other things I do,” he told me…
Wang’s model uses an 80-line meta-analysis program he designed that takes all of the available polls and aggregates them to get a statistical snapshot of what is happening.
Although not every poll is reliable, Wang says even though individual pollsters can have biases and make mistakes, if you add all of the polls together they are very good at predicting outcomes.
“Let the statistics do their job and get out of their way and don’t put a finger on the scale,” says Wang in describing his method.
Copyright 2014 Liberaland
26 responses to Princeton Prof: Democrats Will Hold Senate
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Suzanne McFly September 16th, 2014 at 19:47
On the news this morning, a commentator (can’t remember who) was saying how the polls in Arkansas is showing a tight race with the Republican, Tom Cotton coming in 2 points higher than Mark Pryor but the poll has been questioned because a large percentage of the Arkansas population do not have land lines and polls cannot be conducted on cell phones. I hardly believe Arkansas is the only state with this situation. I don’t believe the polls, I will believe the results the day after the election.
tiredoftea September 16th, 2014 at 19:47
Nate Silver had a comment recently that there is not a lot of polling going on in many races and that is skewing the outcomes. As the polling picks up, there will be better results.
Suzanne McFly September 16th, 2014 at 19:47
On the news this morning, a commentator (can’t remember who) was saying how the polls in Arkansas is showing a tight race with the Republican, Tom Cotton coming in 2 points higher than Mark Pryor but the poll has been questioned because a large percentage of the Arkansas population do not have land lines and polls cannot be conducted on cell phones. I hardly believe Arkansas is the only state with this situation. I don’t believe the polls, I will believe the results the day after the election.
tiredoftea September 16th, 2014 at 19:47
Nate Silver had a comment recently that there is not a lot of polling going on in many races and that is skewing the outcomes. As the polling picks up, there will be better results.
NW10 September 16th, 2014 at 19:54
The only thing that matters is turnout. If these loud progressives who continue to attack Democrats stop with their failed antics, then that will help things.
Here’s a Milt Shook op-ed from pleasecutthecrap.com illustrating how progressives have to either support Democrats or bow out:
http://pleasecutthecrap.com/dear-pubs-and-pro-lefties-either-support-all-democrats-or-sit-down-and-shut-up/
(((NW10,PATRIOT! ✓ᵛᵉʳᶦᶠᶦᵉᵈ))) September 16th, 2014 at 19:54
The only thing that matters is turnout. If these loud progressives who continue to attack Democrats stop with their failed antics, then that will help things.
Here’s a Milt Shook op-ed from pleasecutthecrap.com illustrating how progressives have to either support Democrats or bow out:
http://pleasecutthecrap.com/dear-pubs-and-pro-lefties-either-support-all-democrats-or-sit-down-and-shut-up/
Obewon September 16th, 2014 at 20:52
Current polls prove voter majorities in many legacy red states find no intelligent life remaining in today’s repub party having 72% disapproval, with just 15% tea party approval.
Suzanne McFly September 17th, 2014 at 11:24
It seems like they have the loudest voices though and that makes it seem like they are a larger segment.
Obewon September 16th, 2014 at 20:52
Current polls prove voter majorities in many legacy red states find no intelligent life remaining in today’s repub party having 72% disapproval, with just 15% tea party approval.
Suzanne McFly September 17th, 2014 at 11:24
It seems like they have the loudest voices though and that makes it seem like they are a larger segment.
Spirit of America September 16th, 2014 at 21:15
While I understand it’s their livelihood for some, hobby for others, I don’t bother listening to any election polls till 14-21 days before the election… too much happens, changes/guffs, etc for me to start tracking outcomes.
Obewon September 16th, 2014 at 21:33
Why wait? November 4th is 7 weeks from today and most voters know there’s not any reason to reward repub failures, well proven hypocrisy and universal obstructionism.
Bob Cronos September 17th, 2014 at 01:15
Yep, we need to keep taking from the 50% who produce and give it to the 50% who don’t produce… Where is Darwin when you need him?
Obewon September 17th, 2014 at 01:45
CBO Proves today less than 10% of US households pay no federal income taxes, but everyone pays sales taxes, fuel taxes subsidizing Big Oil corporate welfare queens e.g. #GOPKochAddicts. FYI> In 2007 the non-taxpayer people figure was 14%. This percentage would be even lower if it reflected other federal taxes that households pay, including excise taxes on gasoline and other items.
Most of the people who pay neither federal income tax nor payroll taxes are low-income people who are elderly, unable to work due to a serious disability, or students, most of whom subsequently become taxpayers. http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=3505
Spirit of America September 16th, 2014 at 21:15
While I understand it’s their livelihood for some, hobby for others, I don’t bother listening to any election polls till 14-21 days before the election… too much happens, changes/guffs, etc for me to start tracking outcomes.
Obewon September 16th, 2014 at 21:33
Why wait? November 4th is 7 weeks from today and most voters know there’s no reason to reward repub failures, well proven hypocrisy and universal obstructionism.
Bob Cronos September 17th, 2014 at 01:15
Yep, we need to keep taking from the 50% who produce and give it to the 50% who don’t produce… Where is Darwin when you need him?
Obewon September 17th, 2014 at 01:45
You alienated 51% of 2012 voters, leaving you a 70% probability of not winning senate control November 4th. “We’ve got to stop being the stupid party”-Jindal 2013. Great job GOP! Meanwhile nonpartisan CBO proves today less than 10% of US households pay no federal income taxes, but everyone pays sales taxes, fuel, utility & other taxes subsidizing Big Oil corporate welfare queens e.g. #GOPKochAddicts. FYI> In 2007 the non-taxpayer figure was 14%. This percentage would be even lower if it reflected other federal taxes that households pay, including excise taxes on gasoline and other items.
Most of the people who pay neither federal income tax nor payroll taxes are low-income people who are elderly, unable to work due to a serious disability, or students, most of whom subsequently become taxpayers. http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=3505 It’s ironic that Willard barely scraped together 47% of the vote & lost the 51% Popular vote majority. Mitt also lost the Electoral College 3:2, (D) 332 to (R) 206 -in the 5th GOP popular POTUS vote loss of the past 6 Presidential elections! (GOP have no path to 271:)
juicyfruityyy September 16th, 2014 at 21:50
I don’t following predictions. If every registered Dem voted. We would win the House, Senate, Governors, and other seats up for election.
juicyfruityyy September 16th, 2014 at 21:50
I don’t following predictions. If every registered Dem voted. We would win the House, Senate, Governors, and other seats up for election.
mmaynard119 September 16th, 2014 at 21:59
There is so much variability between polling companies ranging from sample sizes, population selection process, how questions are phrased and polling methods that trying to compare polls and determine accuracy is almost impossible.
mmaynard119 September 16th, 2014 at 21:59
There is so much variability between polling companies ranging from sample sizes, population selection process, how questions are phrased and polling methods that trying to compare polls and determine accuracy is almost impossible.
Republicans_are_Evil September 16th, 2014 at 22:16
Conventional wisdom says that if the Republicans are propagandizing how they are going to win an election, they are going to lose.
Republicans_are_Evil September 16th, 2014 at 22:16
Conventional wisdom says that if the Republicans are propagandizing how they are going to win an election, they are going to lose.
Shades September 16th, 2014 at 22:51
Sam Wang bested Nate Silver in the 2012 election. Granted, Silver was pretty darn close, but this guy was closer.
Shades September 16th, 2014 at 22:51
Sam Wang bested Nate Silver in the 2012 election. Granted, Silver was pretty darn close, but this guy was closer.