Here’s What Will Happen In Iowa

by Stuart Shapiro

OK, time to make your predictions for the Hawkeye State GOP caucuses.  Here are mine.  Results first and then a few others to boot.

Ron Paul 31%,  Rick Santorum 24%,  Mitt Romney 22%, Newt Gingrich 12%,  Rick Perry 7%, Michele Bachmann 4%

• Bachmann drops out on Wednesday and Perry drops out on Thursday

• The media pooh-pooh’s Paul’s victory and cites Huckabee’s win in 2008 as evidence that Iowa doesn’t mean anything (even though they’ve been emphasizing Iowa for months).

•  The media also cites the day as a loss for Romney — but it is really a major victory, knocking Perry out and crippling Gingrich.

• Gingrich stays in the race and has one more comeback in him as he contends in South Carolina.

By: Stuart Shapiro

Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.