And Now, The 2012 Senate Race

by Stuart Shapiro

OK, this is my last post on 2012 until the first Republican declares for president (which admittedly could be next week).  The Senate prognosis for Democrats is grim.  Kos sums it up:

Overall, it’s clear that Dems are going to be playing a great deal of defense in 2012. It’s not a favorable map. Not just the Democrats at the bottom of the list above, but several more not recently polled by PPP — Kent Conrad in North Dakota, Jim Webb in Virginia, and Joe Manchin (again) in West Virginia.

In a bad climate, 2012 will be nightmarish for Senate Dems. If things improve, it’ll merely be tough.

This is why the Nevada/Delaware/Colorado victories were so important in this cycle.  It gives the Democrats a four-seat cushion for the 2012 Senate.  And they will need every one of those seats.  The only realistic pickup opportunities are Massachusetts and Maine (if Snowe runs as a Democrat).  And there are about a dozen Democratic seats realistically in play.

By: Stuart Shapiro

Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.