‘Always correct’ forecast model predicts Trump victory

Posted by | August 14, 2016 09:03 | Filed under: Politics

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But the person running the model says he’s predicting Clinton will win because of how unusual Trump’s candidacy is.

Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.

He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.

“Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory,” Abramowitz added.

However, in an unusual move, Abramowitz is throwing his own model under the bus and suggesting that Clinton will win because Trump is so different from past presidential candidates and has such high unfavorability ratings that his election forecast basics can’t be trusted.

 

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Copyright 2016 Liberaland
By: Alan

Alan Colmes is the publisher of Liberaland.

11 responses to ‘Always correct’ forecast model predicts Trump victory

  1. William August 14th, 2016 at 09:07

    Uh huh.

    • bpollen August 15th, 2016 at 03:44

      Did you know “gullible” isn’t even in the dictionary?

  2. KABoink_after_wingnut_hacker August 14th, 2016 at 09:17

    Keep telling yourselves that.
    By the way, Trump supporters can now stay home on election day to surf porn, hug their guns and thump their buybull.

  3. Suzanne McFly August 14th, 2016 at 09:26

    Finally, a recent poll rump can use…./s

  4. mea_mark August 14th, 2016 at 09:31

    If tRump wins, it won’t be because people like him, it will be because he is the exit out of a corrupt two party political establishment. A lot of people don’t like our political system and see tRump as the exit.

  5. robert August 14th, 2016 at 10:18

    in other words alan isn’t buying into trump’s… make america great again

  6. granpa.usthai August 14th, 2016 at 12:44

    you can always get another magic 8 ball at Amazon.com.

  7. Foundryman August 14th, 2016 at 12:58

    In normal times, yes, this poll could show after an eight year term the opposing party would probably win. Trump is not normal, he’s a crazed madman who makes no sense to anyone except his idiot base.

    • Gary Parillo August 14th, 2016 at 15:52

      From what I can understand, a precedent has been set pertaining to the 8 year term deal.That has worried me a bit.But we need to remember,donny has broken every other precedent as pertaining to a candidate,so hopefully this one will be broken also.Yet we still need to take it as a serious warning,and encourage every dem to get out there and vote.Dems still out number the repukes,and this is no year for a “whatever” attitude.What is at stake is far more than the average election.

  8. Willys41 August 15th, 2016 at 13:18

    If Trump wins it’s because too many Americans are blithering idiots.

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