Cook: Texas and North Carolina shift toward Clinton

Posted by | October 28, 2016 09:20 | Filed under: Politics


The Cook Political Report has more states moving in Clinton’s favor.

Less than two weeks before the election, Trump continues to struggle to lock down traditionally Republican states — even Texas and Utah — and lags behind Clinton in key battleground states he would need to win. The third debate didn’t alter the trajectory of the race. In fact, the debates proved to be nothing but a drag on Trump as they highlighted his biggest weakness: his temperament.

Last week, we moved seven states towards Clinton. This week, we are moving two additional states in her direction, giving her an advantage of 293 electoral votes — 23 more than required to win.

Clinton has taken a lead in North Carolina, a state where she enjoys a large organizational advantage. The white share of the state’s voter rolls has fallen from 71.1 percent to 69.7 percent in the last four years. The most recent polling, a New York Times/Siena poll and a Quinnipiac poll showed her up 7 points and 4 points respectively. North Carolina moves from Toss Up to Lean Democratic.

In a sign of just how poor a position he is in, Trump has failed to build a strong lead in deep red Texas, where the RealClearPolitics average shows him up by four points. Texas’s growing Hispanic share, as well as its high share of college-educated whites, are hurting him.

Texas’s early voting data makes clear Democrats have an enthusiasm edge: early voting is up 119 percent in Austin and 93 percent in El Paso compared to 2012, while it’s up by much less in heavily GOP counties. It would still be a shock if Trump failed to carry the largest Republican state in the country, but Texas moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

Click here for reuse options!
Copyright 2016 Liberaland
By: Alan

Alan Colmes is the publisher of Liberaland.

8 responses to Cook: Texas and North Carolina shift toward Clinton

  1. William October 28th, 2016 at 09:50

    Texas goes democratic? What next? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6836ce6489b95f92cf050d985c45ec3d875b2568125f769706a4adf63ffa3429.jpg

    • Roctuna October 28th, 2016 at 11:45

      I voted yesterday in suburban Houston where we “enjoy” a high concentration of tea. While voting I overheard 3 individuals ask questions of a poll judge about what to do next after they voted straight Dem! In regards to other strange things, did you see this story about the Cubs?
      http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/1993-High-School-Yearbook-Quote-Predicted-Cubs-World-Series-Win-for-2016-398397051.html

      • William October 28th, 2016 at 22:11

        I don’t usually vote straight ticket, but I did this time. When the republithugs decided they would simply leave a supreme court seat vacant for no other reason than they didn’t like the President who nominated him, I decided it was time.

    • amersham1046 October 28th, 2016 at 19:33

      or Bob Dylan wins a Nobel Prise

  2. Um Cara October 28th, 2016 at 11:29

    I thought it would be the prez election after this one that Texas would go blue, nice to see it’s at least possible it will be this one.

    I doubt it will stop many of my fellow libs from being strategic enough to stop alienating Texans. Some libs seem to enjoy ignoring racism and other problems in their own back yards and prefer to say stuff like ‘Texas should just go ahead and secede, yuk yuk yuk’. More strategic thinkers are more interested in shifting that huge chunk of electoral votes into blue territory, rather than writing off the state.

    • Suzanne McFly October 28th, 2016 at 17:14

      Sometimes we succumb to our lesser selves.

    • burqa October 28th, 2016 at 23:06

      Your first sentence echoes what I was going to say. Either the next one or the one after that, because of the migration of northerners and Latin Americans.
      Excellent second point, too. Texas gots, what, 38 electoral college votes or something like that?
      Plus, keeping it close could force Trump to concentrate on hanging on to a red state, giving him less time to be elsewhere.

      One more thing – when RedEyeRobot shows up again, be sure to talk up liberal inroads being made into Texas.
      He does his Red Eye Radio show from Dallas and lives in some awful subdivision outside the city…..

  3. amersham1046 October 28th, 2016 at 17:21

    Texas voting for Clinton, oh dear how will Ted Cruz explain that

Leave a Reply