New York primary shaping up as ‘must-win’ for Sanders, Clinton
If it seems like the race to win the Democratic primary has suddenly gotten more tense, thank New York: after eight straight wins for Senator Bernie Sanders and a tightening gap in the polls, analysts now describe the April 19 contest as a “must-win” for both the Vermont lawmaker and front-runner Hillary Clinton. How can that…
16 responses to New York primary shaping up as ‘must-win’ for Sanders, Clinton
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Glen April 11th, 2016 at 09:12
Ironically, it’s more of a must-win for Clinton, despite her being the front-runner. If Sanders comes remotely close, it’ll energise his campaign, and could lead to a much bigger result for him in California. If he wins New York, it’s pretty much guaranteed that he’ll get the nomination – he’d have beaten Clinton in her ‘home’ state, overcome a (currently) 14 point deficit (which was more like 30 points in late March), and continued to close the gap, proving that he can win a highly diverse, large-population state in a closed primary. Even if the win is only by, say, 0.1%, with delegates split, it would still be a massive result for Sanders.
If Clinton doesn’t win New York, it will kill her campaign. For Sanders, it’s at most a flesh wound if he doesn’t win New York.
To put it another way – Sanders simply has a harder path to the nomination without winning New York, but Sanders winning would show incredible momentum and simultaneously increase the momentum dramatically, likely leading to a sweep of the next five states. It provides the Sanders campaign with an incredibly convincing narrative about his momentum and his ability to win. Clinton doesn’t get that benefit from a win in New York, because a win is the expectation for Clinton – she has to completely wipe the floor with Sanders (a 30 point lead or more) to get the equivalent benefit.
Mensa Member April 11th, 2016 at 10:05
Are you Sander’s press agent? What a spin!
Losing New York would significantly hurt Bernie. People are asking — can Bernie win a big, diverse state? A New York loss would answer this question. Plus, of course, the delegates. A win in Wyoming was nice but hardly anybody lives there!
But, I agree with you on this: , he’ll keep running, even if he loses. He initially ran to get a liberal message out — and he’s not going to stop now that he has cheering arenas. That part is going very well.
Obviously, Hillary losing her own state would be devastating. But, that’s not likely to happen.
Glen April 11th, 2016 at 11:25
No spin at all. Just the facts.
Of course, I left out the final point – the reason why what I said is true is that Sanders has an uphill battle. It’s unlikely that he’ll win New York. And that’s part of why it would be a lot less devastating to his campaign if he doesn’t win it.
Like I said, the only thing that hurts him if he loses by a small fraction is that the number of delegates he needs from later primaries is higher. It’s a tough, but not insurmountable obstacle for him. But if he wins, even slightly, the momentum will shift in his favour. This is precisely because he’s the underdog in the New York primary.
I do agree that it’s unlikely that Clinton will lose. And truth be told, I expect her to come out slightly ahead. But I think the margin will be significantly closer than people have been expecting – perhaps a 4 point difference, which would translate to maybe a net loss of 9 delegates relative to Clinton (assuming perfectly proportional allocation). It makes Sanders’ road to the nomination harder, but not dramatically so, relative to a small win by Sanders (with, say, a net gain of 1 delegate).
Image is everything – Sanders coming anywhere close to Clinton in New York will look like a “win” for Sanders because he’s is the underdog. If Clinton loses to Sanders, it will be a massive “loss” for Clinton because she is the favourite. And that’s why it’s must-win for Clinton, but merely good-to-win for Sanders.
oldfart April 11th, 2016 at 11:55
Your spot on again Glenn. If Bernie loses in SINGLE digits it will further serve his momentum and apply further pressure on Hillary.
As a Democratic party supporter, a tight race with further contrast to the RWNJ’s here in NY is a big plus AKA more media coverage on the Democratic candidates less on the republicans.
I am curious (and somewhat embarrassed) as to what you and your country thinks of our election show we’re putting on.
Glen April 11th, 2016 at 12:10
Well, I can’t speak for the entirety of Australia, but among those people I interact with, who comment at all on politics, the general consensus seems to be that Trump is incredibly scary (my mother describes it as “if Trump is elected, it’s going to be World War 3”), that Cruz is incredibly religious in a way that even the most out-there Aussies aren’t, and that Kasich is the least absurd of the Republican candidates – ideologically extreme, but not extremist like the other two.
There’s a lot more comfort regarding the Democratic race. My brother, for instance, expects that Sanders will win, and that he’s the best candidate, but hasn’t got a problem with Clinton, either. Mostly, the ones that pay closer attention expect the Democrat to win, whoever it is, while those paying a little less attention seem to be scared that Trump will win.
That’s how people I know seem to be reacting, but I don’t spend a whole lot of time talking with right-wing people, so I don’t know what their reaction is.
Keep in mind, Australian politics hasn’t skewed to the right in the way that American politics has. I like to describe it like this – our main right-wing party is a lot like Clinton (but with some wingnuts in the party comparable to your republicans), and our left-wing party is more like Sanders. Plus, the Greens (like your Green Party) are a sizeable force because we have preferential voting – they have 13% of the Senate seats, and one House of Reps seat amongst 150 seats (with a few others possibly going to the Greens at the next election).
oldfart April 11th, 2016 at 12:23
Thank you for your reply. Tell your brother not to hold his breath…
but he CAN keep his fingers crossed. While I will be voting for Bernie in our NY primary, I expect to be voting for Hillary in the general.
jybarz April 11th, 2016 at 11:10
Totally agree with you.
Few people will have sick days off after a Bernie NY win.
Glen April 11th, 2016 at 11:27
I don’t actually think Sanders will manage a win. I think it’ll be a relatively narrow loss (significantly less than a 14 point difference). As much as I’d like to see how the media, the establishment, and the candidates respond to a Sanders win in New York, I just don’t see it happening. It’s just a touch too late to get the necessary support in such a populous state, in my opinion.
Of course, I could be wrong. But it could go either way if I’m wrong – Sanders could pull an upset win, or he could lose by significantly more than I expect.
oldfart April 11th, 2016 at 13:20
If Bernie wins NY, I will no doubt be calling in sick for Wednesday !
Obewon April 11th, 2016 at 09:43
NY RCP average rises to +14:) for our winner Senator Clinton.
Poll Date Sample MoE 54%-Clinton vs 40%-Sanders Spread Clinton +14.0 RCP Average 3/22 – 4/7/2016. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html
Mensa Member April 11th, 2016 at 09:59
You beat me to my comment. If this is a “must win” for Sanders, RCP says he’s in deep trouble.
BTW: Did you notice that Obama’s approval rating is at 51%? Remember when the press was predicting that Obama’s approval would be in the dumpster his second term?
Obewon April 11th, 2016 at 10:19
POTUS Obama disapproval is 42% equivalent to remaining GOP voters.
Glen April 11th, 2016 at 12:19
True, RCP says he’s in deep trouble. But that said, RCP had Clinton ahead by over 20 points in Michigan just days before their primary, and Sanders won it. Which of course doesn’t mean that the same will happen in New York. The point, though, is that opinion polls can be misleading, especially when it comes to these sorts of contests. The same thing can be seen in, for instance, the Ohio opinion polls (but in that case, Clinton beat the expectation from the polls).
Opinion polls should be used only a guides, not as predictions. There’s good reason to believe Clinton has the lead right now, based on RCP. That’s really as much as we can truly tell.
Mike April 11th, 2016 at 11:10
That spread was 30 points last month, Bernie has the momentum…can he close that gap by next week…??? Unlikely. However, if he makes it close (2 or 3 point dif) losing won’t mean anything (I hope)
We have to do something about Wall St, and Hill is just too cozy with some of the players.
Obewon April 11th, 2016 at 19:51
Last week the NY RCP average had Clinton up +11 in NY’s primary.
Today’s NY RCP average rose to +14. The NY state momentum is clear.
Ya know the primary donor limit max is $2,700, SuperPAC primary donor max limit is $5,000. That’s not much juice in 2015’s $18 T GDP of which financial services = 40% or $7.2 T in 2015.
cwazycajun April 11th, 2016 at 10:13
I wonder what would happen if NY gave Clinton the Bronx cheer…I wouldn’t mind seein that….new York needs to feel the Bern