Polls Hint At Trouble For House GOPers

Posted by | October 7, 2013 09:00 | Filed under: Politics Top Stories


Despite that fact that more Americans voted for a Democratic congressional candidate than for a Republican in 2012, gerrymandering gave the GOP a majority in the House of Representatives. But even that cheat may not help the Republicans hold the House. With just over a year to go until medterm elections, polling portends big trouble ahead:

MoveOn selected an array of potentially vulnerable seats across the nation, but because not all of these races feature challengers as yet (though most do), they tested the incumbents against the proverbial “generic Democrat.” Before even addressing any questions about the shutdown, 17 of these 24 Republicans trail their hypothetical opponents. (Two are tied.) These results appear closely correlated with job approval ratings, as all but two of these 17 congressmen sport negative scores—that is, more voters disapprove than approve of their performance in office.

PPP then asked a trio of questions to elicit voters’ feelings about the GOP’s attempts to derail the implementation of Obamacare by holding the federal budget and, potentially, the debt hostage:

  • Do you support or oppose Congress shutting down major activities of the federal government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place?
  • Do you support or oppose Congress holding back on increasing the nation’s borrowing limit, which could result in a default, as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place?
  • Would you be less likely or more likely to support Congressman X if you knew he voted to support shutting down major activities of the federal government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place, or does it not make a difference?

In almost every district, respondents said they opposed both tactics on the budget and debt, and they also said they’d be less likely to vote for their congressman if he support a shutdown to block “the health care law” (i.e., the Affordable Care Act). PPP then asked a so-called “informed ballot” question, again pairing each incumbent against a generic Democrat. As you might expect, the messaging contained in the prior three questions helped move the needle against Republicans in almost every case, by an average of 3 net points.

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Copyright 2013 Liberaland
By: dave-dr-gonzo

David Hirsch, a.k.a. Dave "Doctor" Gonzo*, is a renegade record producer, video producer, writer, reformed corporate shill, and still-registered lobbyist for non-one-percenter performing artists and musicians. He lives in a heavily fortified compound in one of Manhattan's less trendy neighborhoods.

* Hirsch is the third person to use the pseudonym, a not-so-veiled tribute to journalist and author Hunter S. Thompson, with the permission of his predecessors Gene Gaudette of American Politics Journal (currently webmaster and chief bottlewasher at Liberaland) and Stephen Meese at Smashmouth Politics.